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H2H 39: Carlos Beltran vs. Larry Walker – Who was Better?

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Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, Carlos Beltrán in 2017 (cropped), CC BY-SA 2.0
Googie Man on en.wikipedia, Larry Walker1, CC BY-SA 3.0

Note: Updated for Larry Walker’s 2020 Hall of Fame selection.

Every major league baseball team is constantly on the lookout for the next great five-tool player (speed, power, hitting for average, fielding, arm strength), with the best example in today’s game being Mike Trout.  In recent memory, two of the best five-tool talents of the 1990s and 2000s were Carlos Beltran and Larry Walker, who between the two of them, had nearly 5,000 hits, 800 home runs, 3,000 runs scored, 3,000 runs batted in, and 500 stolen bases, and were honored with All-Star selections, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, batting titles, and MVPs.  Though each player’s respective Hall of Fame credentials have been (and in Beltran’s case, will be) debated among Cooperstown voters, between the two of them, the question is:

Who was better – Carlos Beltran or Larry Walker?

The Beginning

As youngsters in their native countries, neither Beltran nor Walker fully committed to baseball until their teenage years, though both showed a knack for baseball and would make an immediate impact upon being called up to the major leagues.

Growing up in Puerto Rico, Beltran was a multi-sport star as a youngster before fully committing to baseball in his teens.  In the 1995 MLB Draft, he was drafted in the second round by the Kansas City Royals and while in the Royals’ minor league system, the right-handed Beltran taught himself to be a switch-hitter.  After being a September call-up in the 1998 season, Beltran became a full-time starter for Kansas City in 1999 and proceeded to win AL Rookie of the Year honors by hitting .293 with 22 home runs, 108 runs batted in, 112 runs scored, 27 stolen bases, a .337 on-base percentage, and a .454 slugging percentage (99 OPS+, which measures on-base percentage plus slugging vs. a league-wide average set at 100).

On the other hand, Walker grew up in the greater Vancouver area of Canada with aspirations of becoming an NHL goaltender (one of the kids he played hockey with as a youth was future NHL Hall of Famer Cam Neely).  Though baseball was originally a secondary pursuit in the summers, he became disillusioned with junior hockey as a teenager and began to focus his efforts on baseball, which at the time was still a relatively nascent sport in Canada.  After playing baseball for Canada at the 1984 World Youth Championships, Walker signed as an amateur free agent with the Montreal Expos (Canadians were ineligible for the MLB Draft at the time). Given his lack of organized baseball experience, Walker was very raw as a prospect and spent almost five years developing in the minors before being called up to the Expos in August of 1989; upon becoming a full-time outfielder in 1990, he would hit .241 with 19 home runs, 51 runs batted in, 59 runs scored, 21 stolen bases, a .326 on-base percentage, and a .434 slugging percentage (112 OPS+), good for a seventh-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Career Comparison

During their respective primes, Beltran and Walker were among the most dynamic players in the game with their rare power-speed skillsets, though the latter was plagued by injuries throughout his career; nevertheless, both players became fixtures at the All-Star Game and/or near the top of the MVP ballot for many years.

Following a sophomore slump in 2000, where he was limited to 98 games with injury and only hit .247, Beltran bounced back with four consecutive seasons with 20+ home runs, 100+ runs batted in, 100+ runs scored, and 30+ stolen bases from 2001 to 2004.  This culminated with his first All-Star selection in 2004, though interestingly, Beltran was traded midseason to the Houston Astros in a three-team deal that saw the Astros get Beltran, the Oakland Athletics get reliever Octavio Dotel from the Astros, and the Royals get catcher John Buck from the Astros and minor leaguers Mike Wood and Mark Teahen from the Athletics.  As a result, while Beltran was originally named as an AL All-Star, he was ineligible for the NL All-Star Team until being selected as an injury replacement; overall, across Kansas City and Houston, he hit .267 with 38 home runs, 104 runs batted in, 121 runs scored, 42 stolen bases, a .367 on-base percentage, and a .548 slugging percentage (good for a 133 OPS+), narrowly missing out on a rare 40 home run-40 stolen base season and finishing 12th in the NL MVP race.

Beltran became a free agent after his half-season in Houston and signed a seven-year, $119M deal with the New York Mets, marking the largest contract in Mets history at the time and the 10th $100M contract in MLB history.  Across his six-and-a-half seasons in Queens, Beltran was a 5x All-Star, which also included two consecutive Silver Sluggers in 2006 and 2007:

Additionally, Beltran would also win his three career Gold Gloves (2006-2008) during this career peak.

Once again, in the middle of the 2011 season, Beltran waived his no-trade clause and was traded to the San Francisco Giants for pitching prospect Zach Wheeler, later reaching 300 career home runs in September as a Giant.  However, in the offseason, he signed with the St. Louis Cardinals and was an All-Star in both of his seasons with the Cardinals, including his last 30-home run campaign in 2012 (.269 with 32 home runs, 97 runs batted in, 83 runs scored, 13 stolen bases, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .495 slugging percentage, good for a 128 OPS+).  After signing with the New York Yankees in 2014, Beltran had two-and-half so-so seasons in New York before he was again dealt mid-season to the Texas Rangers in 2016 for three prospects, and would have his final All-Star season by hitting .295 with 29 home runs, 93 runs batted in, 73 runs scored, a .337 on-base percentage, and a .513 slugging percentage (122 OPS+).  Finally, Beltran would spend one season with the Houston Astros primarily as a designated hitter before retiring in 2017 at age 40.

Meanwhile, north of the border, Walker gradually improved with the Expos and was one of the catalysts for helping to popularize baseball in Canada.  His first All-Star selection, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove came in 1992, when he batted .301 with 23 home runs, 93 runs batted in, 85 runs scored, 18 stolen bases, a .353 on-base percentage, and a .506 slugging percentage (141 OPS+) to finish fifth for the NL MVP while also earning the first of seven career Gold Gloves and three career Silver Sluggers.  In 1994, Walker was hitting a then career-high .322 and leading the league with 44 doubles when the infamous strike hit; in the midst of arguably his best season to-date, he would finish 11th for MVP. However, the small-market Expos decided to dismantle post-strike, leading to the slow demise of Montreal baseball and eventual relocation to Washington DC; as a free agent, an in-his-prime Walker signed with the Colorado Rockies.

Walker began his stint in Colorado with a very strong 1995 season that culminated in a seventh-place MVP finish (.306 batting average with 36 home runs, 101 runs batted in, 96 runs scored, 16 stolen bases, a .381 on-base percentage, and a .607 slugging percentage, good for a 131 OPS+) before being plagued by injury the following season.  From there, Walker embarked on an incredible three-year stretch from 1997 to 1999 in which he was an All-Star and Gold Glover each year and became the first player in 60+ years to hit better than .360 in three straight years:

After another injury plagued season in 2000, Walker would earn his last All-Star selection and win his third and final batting title in 2001 on the strength of a .350 batting average, 38 home runs, 123 runs batted in, 107 runs scored, 14 stolen bases, a .449 on-base percentage, and a .662 slugging percentage (160 OPS+); he followed up with his last .300+ season with 20+ home runs and 100+ runs batted in the next year, as well as winning his last Gold Glove.  Midway through the 2004 season, Walker was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for three minor leaguers – in his one-and-a-half seasons in St. Louis, Walker produced when healthy (a big if) before retiring at age 38 after the 2005 season.

Given his greater longevity and better overall health, Beltran played over 500 more games than Walker in his career, which contributes greatly to his edge in nearly every major counting offensive category; in fact, with 435 career home runs, Beltran is fourth all-time on the home run list by switch-hitters behind only Mickey Mantle (536), Eddie Murray (504), and Chipper Jones (468).  However, the story reverses when you look at ratios and averages, with Walker ahead of Beltran in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS+. Moreover, one could argue that Walker was the more decorated player as well – though Beltran has more All-Star selections (9 vs. 5), Walker has an MVP to his name, more Gold Gloves (7 vs. 3), Silver Sluggers (3 vs. 2), and batting titles (3 vs. 0).  Additionally, when you look at the advanced metrics, Walker also has a slight edge in career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 72.7 vs. 69.6. Perhaps due to the perceived Coors Field effect, Walker waited until 2020 to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, while Beltran is likely to face similar scrutiny once he becomes eligible.

Regular Season Statistics

Carlos BeltranPlayerLarry Walker
20 (1998-2017)Seasons17 (1989-2005)
2,586Games Played1,988
9,768At-Bats6,907
2,725Hits2,160
1,582Runs1,355
435Home Runs383
1,587Runs Batted In1,311
1,084Walks913
312Stolen Bases230
.279Batting Average.313
.350On-Base Percentage.400
.486Slugging Percentage.565
119OPS+141
69.6Wins Above Replacement72.7
9xAll-Star Games5x
–MVP1x
1xWorld Series Titles–
3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, ROYOther Awards3x Batting Title, 7x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger
–Hall of Fame Induction2020

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

There is a significant divergence in playoff experience between the two players – while Beltran has a number of memorable playoff moments and eventually won a championship, Walker toiled on mediocre Rockies teams for many years before a late career playoff push.

Though he never made the postseason with Kansas City, Beltran would go on to make seven career playoff appearances in his mid to late career, with his most memorable moments coming at the very beginning and end.  As a midseason acquisition in 2004, he made his playoff debut with the Astros with quite a bang – after hitting .455 with 4 home runs and 9 runs batted in against Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves, Beltran then hit .417 with 4 more home runs and 5 runs batted in during the NLCS in a seven-game loss to Walker and the Cardinals (more on that shortly).  Overall, Beltran hit .435 with 8 home runs, 14 runs batted in, and 21 runs scored, tying Barry Bonds for the single postseason home run record.  Following only one postseason appearance with the Mets, he made consecutive trips in 2012 and 2013 with the Cardinals, including his first World Series appearance; despite Beltran hitting .294 in the Fall Classic, St. Louis lost to the Boston Red Sox in six games.  Finally, in his last season in 2017, Beltran won that elusive World Series ring as the Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games, though he played sparingly and went hitless in three World Series at-bats.

As for Walker, he was an infrequent postseason presence with only three career appearances.  After missing out on the 1994 playoffs with the World Series favorite Expos (a loaded team that included Pedro Martinez, Jeff Fassero, John Wetteland, Cliff Floyd, Marquis Grissom, and Moises Alou, among others) due to the infamous strike, he made the 1995 playoffs in his first season with the Rockies, but Colorado lost in four games in the NLDS to the Braves and their vaunted pitching staff led by Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz; Walker was held in check, hitting only .214 (three hits in 14 at-bats).  Unfortunately, that would be his only postseason appearance with the Rockies, but after his midseason trade to the Cardinals in 2004, Walker would help lead St. Louis to the World Series. Though the Cardinals were swept by the Red Sox, Walker had a magnificent postseason, hitting .293 overall (including .357 in the World Series) with 6 home runs, 11 runs batted in, and 14 runs scored. The next year, St. Louis would make it back to the NLCS, but fell to Roger Clemens and the Astros in six games, and Walker only mustered three hits in 28 playoff at-bats before retiring at season’s end.

Playoff Statistics

Carlos BeltranPlayerLarry Walker
65Games Played28
215At-Bats100
66Hits23
45Runs18
16Home Runs7
42Runs Batted In15
37Walks16
11Stolen Bases2
.307Batting Average.230
.412On-Base Percentage.350
.609Slugging Percentage.510

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; while Beltran remained a relatively healthy and productive player even in his waning years, Walker was besieged by nagging injuries throughout his career.  For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.”  The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years.

Decade of Dominance

Carlos BeltranPlayerLarry Walker
1999, 2001-2004, 2006-2008, 2011-2012Decade of Dominance1992-1995, 1997-1999, 2001-2003
1,511Games Played1,346
5,774At-Bats4,795
1,645Hits1,570
1,052Runs994
294Home Runs289
1,039Runs Batted In984
725Walks661
259Stolen Bases163
.285Batting Average.327
.364On-Base Percentage.415
.516Slugging Percentage.598
57.2Wins Above Replacement58.1

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Even across their decades of dominance, Walker was limited in games played by injuries; as a result, in this view, Beltran continues to hold the edge in counting categories and Walker has the edge in ratios/averages.  When you encapsulate everything into one advanced metric (WAR), the two players are essentially even at ~57 to 58 WAR.

My Thoughts

When Larry Walker’s Hall of Fame credentials were debated, one of the big issues that was often raised was the Coors Field effect, i.e. how much were his numbers inflated by playing in arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark in recent baseball history?  In Walker’s case, if we look at his MVP season as an example, he hit .346 on the road with 29 home runs that year (vs. .384 at home with 20 home runs), so he could clearly hit anywhere and everywhere. Between these two borderline Hall of Fame cases, I believe both players are worthy of Cooperstown; having said that, I think Walker was the superior player – sure, Beltran has better counting numbers due to his longevity and better health, but apex Walker was arguably one of the top five players in the game and a much more efficient hitter.  With his unique five-tool combination, Walker was one of the few players who could challenge for a Triple Crown; in fact, in his 1997 MVP campaign, he was only four hits and ten runs batted in away from being the first NL Triple Crown winner since Joe Medwick in 1937 – one can only wonder what his final career numbers would look like if he could have only stayed on the field more.

Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:

Larry Walker

As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.

Who was better - Carlos Beltran or Larry Walker?
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