H2H 22: Roger Clemens vs. Randy Johnson – Who was Better?

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Disclaimer: I am well aware that Roger Clemens was alleged to have used steroids in the Mitchell Report and later indicted for his testimony to Congress; these allegations over his steroid use are the primary reason why he is currently not in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  With all of this background in mind, this head-to-head between Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson is meant to compare them based solely on their career numbers and achievements without judgment on whether or not Clemens is guilty of steroid use during his career.

While baseball pitchers come in many shapes and sizes, one of the enduring prototypes is the overpowering strikeout pitcher, from Walter Johnson in the early modern era to Bob Gibson in the mid-20th century to the likes of Max Scherzer today.  Throughout the long history of baseball, however, the list of pitchers who have achieved the dual milestones of 300+ career wins and 4,000+ career strikeouts is short and contains only four names: Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson.  Of this foursome, The Rocket and The Big Unit were modern contemporaries who were among the elite power arms of the 1990s and 2000s (along with the likes of Pedro Martinez). As two of the best pitchers in recent history, there is a natural comparison in stacking them up against each other and asking:

Who was better – Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson?

The Beginning

While Clemens and Johnson would eventually become two of the most feared and overpowering pitchers of their era, each one’s professional career got off to a somewhat rocky start and was nearly derailed by either injury or ineffectiveness.

Clemens began his college career at San Jacinto College North and after a strong season, was drafted in the 12th round of the 1981 MLB Draft by the New York Mets, but did not sign with the Mets; instead, he transferred to Texas, where he was a 2x All-American and won the 1983 College World Series with the Longhorns.  Following his stellar career at Texas, Clemens was then drafted 19th overall by the Boston Red Sox in the 1983 MLB Draft and rose rapidly through the minor leagues, making his major league debut in 1984. That season, he went 9-4 with a 4.32 ERA (97 ERA+, which is an advanced statistic that adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for both his ballpark and the league-wide ERA; 100 is average), 1.31 WHIP, and 126 strikeouts in 133.1 innings pitched, finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.  However, his career was nearly derailed in its infancy by a torn labrum, which required arthroscopic surgery by the now-famed Dr. James Andrews.

As for Johnson, while he was drafted straight out of high school in the fourth round of the 1982 MLB Draft by the Atlanta Braves, he opted instead to sign with USC to play both baseball and basketball.  Four years later, he was drafted again, this time in the second round by the Montreal Expos and would spend around three years in the minors before making his major league debut in 1988 at the age of 25.  However, Johnson only started seven games with the Expos before getting traded to the Seattle Mariners in the middle of the 1989 season as part of a package centered around fellow pitcher Mark Langston – during that 1989 season, Johnson struggled and had an overall record of 7-13 with a 4.82 ERA (82 ERA+), 1.51 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts vs. 96 walks in 160.2 innings pitched.

Career Comparison

Whereas Clemens quickly became one of the best pitchers in baseball in his mid-20s, Johnson was still very much a work in progress and would only reach his potential later in his career; while most pitchers become less effective in their 30s, both maintained a very high level of performance well into their 40s.

After his successful arthroscopic surgery, Clemens quickly catapulted to superstardom – at age 24 in 1986, he won his first Cy Young by going 24-4 with a 2.48 ERA (169 ERA+), a career-best 0.97 WHIP, and 238 strikeouts in 254.0 innings pitched; the wins, ERA, and WHIP all led the AL, and he also became the first pitcher since Vida Blue in 1971 to win league MVP (a feat that was not repeated until Justin Verlander was named AL MVP in 2011).  One of the highlights of Clemens’ remarkable 1986 campaign occurred on April 29, 1986 against the Seattle Mariners, when he became the first pitcher ever to strike out 20 batters in a nine inning game; he is also the only pitcher to accomplish the feat twice, having also fanned 20 against the Detroit Tigers in 1996.

As an encore, Clemens would follow up with a second straight Cy Young in 1987 on the strength of a 20-9 record (once again leading the league in wins), a 2.97 ERA (154 ERA+), a 1.18 WHIP, 256 strikeouts, and a league-best 18 complete games and 7 shutouts in 281.2 innings pitched.  Over the next five years with the Red Sox, he would win at least 17 games each year and led the AL in ERA for three straight years from 1990-1992; this included a 21-6 season in 1990 where he had a miniscule 1.93 ERA (211 ERA+) and finished second in the Cy Young and third in the MVP voting, as well as his third Cy Young in 1991 (18-10 record, 2.62 ERA (165 ERA+), 1.05 WHIP, and a league-best 241 strikeouts over a league-high 271.1 innings pitched).

As he turned 30, however, Clemens hit a bump in his career and struggled between 1993 to 1996, only compiling a 40-39 record that included two losing seasons.  When the Red Sox decided not to re-sign Clemens in 1996, he joined the divisional rival Toronto Blue Jays and was rejuvenated – in his two seasons north of the border, Clemens won back-to-back Cy Youngs (his fourth and fifth overall), winning 20+ games each year and earning two straight Pitching Triple Crowns (wins, ERA, and strikeouts).  Clemens was soon on the move again, however, as Toronto traded him to the former archrival New York Yankees in exchange for David Wells, Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd.

While wearing pinstripes, Clemens had a few good, but not great seasons before bouncing back in 2001 with his sixth Cy Young – while his peripheral stats were relatively average for a Cy Young winner (3.51 ERA, 128 ERA+, 1.26 WHIP, and 213 strikeouts in 220.1 innings pitched), he became the first pitcher to start a season 20-1 and his final 20-3 record represented the best single-season winning percentage of his career.  During the same game in 2003, Clemens racked up both his 300th career win and 4,000th career strikeout, becoming the 21st member of the 300-win club and only the third member of the 4,000-K club, joining Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton; at the conclusion of the season, he decided to “retire” at age 40.

As we all know, Clemens did not actually retire and instead signed with the hometown Houston Astros, and proceeded to immediately dominate the NL.  In his first season with Houston, he went 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA (145 ERA+), 1.16 WHIP, and 218 strikeouts in 214.1 innings pitched to win his seventh and final Cy Young and in the process, became the oldest ever winner as well as one of only six pitchers to win the Cy Young in both the AL and NL (the others being Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson – more on him shortly, Roy Halladay, and most recently, Max Scherzer).  After another stellar 2005 season in which he had a career-low 1.87 ERA (also a career-best 226 ERA+), Clemens pitched one more season with the Astros before making a mid-season return to the Yankees – he would make 17 more starts for New York in 2007 before retiring for good at age 44.

In contrast to Clemens’ meteoric rise to stardom, Johnson showed gradual improvement in his 20s with the Mariners.  During his early years, he was extremely erratic – in three straight years from 1990 to 1992, Johnson issued 100+ walks, including a career-high 152 in 1991 and the dubious feat of leading the AL in both strikeouts (241) and walks (144) in 1992.  By 1993, he had managed to harness his stuff and turned in the first great season of his career, finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting behind Jack McDowell by going 19-8 with a 3.24 ERA (135 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 308 strikeouts (the first of six career 300+ strikeout campaigns), and “only” 99 walks in 255.1 innings pitched.

Johnson’s first Cy Young came in 1995, when he posted an incredible 18-2 record (90.0% winning percentage), had a league-best 2.48 ERA (193 ERA+) and 1.05 WHIP, and struck out 294 batters in 214.1 innings pitched.  Following an injury-shortened 1996 season, he bounced back with arguably the best season of his career to-date: a 20-4 record, career-low 2.24 ERA (and career-best 197 ERA+), 1.06 WHIP, and 291 strikeouts in 213.0 innings pitched, good for another second place finish in the AL Cy Young voting, this time to the aforementioned Clemens.  However, after a sluggish first half in 1998, Johnson was traded to the Houston Astros ahead of the deadline for three minor leaguers (Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama, all of whom had good, but not great major league careers); it was quite the acquisition, as he went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA (322 ERA+!) and 0.98 WHIP for Astros, and placed seventh in the NL Cy Young voting despite only pitching on the senior circuit for two months.

Post the 1998 season, Johnson signed as a free agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks, an expansion team in only their second year of existence.  At age 35, when most players are in decline, Johnson was only entering his prime, and would put together a dominant four-year stretch in which he won four straight Cy Youngs and led the league in ERA+ and strikeouts each year (300+ strikeouts each season):

• 1999: 17-9 record, league-best 2.48 ERA (184 ERA+), 1.02 WHIP, and 364 strikeouts in a league-high 271.2 innings pitched
• 2000: 19-7 record, 2.64 ERA (181 ERA+), 1.12 WHIP, and 347 strikeouts in 248.2 innings pitched.  On May 8, 2001 vs. the Cincinnati Reds, Johnson became only the third pitcher and first lefty in baseball history to strike out 20 batters in a game; however, the game was actually tied 1-1 after nine innings, resulting in a no-decision for him, and the Diamondbacks would win in walk-off fashion in the 11th inning
• 2001: 21-6 record, league-best 2.49 ERA (188 ERA+), league-leading 1.01 WHIP, and career-high 372 strikeouts in 249.2 innings pitched
• 2002: 24-5 record (league-best and career-high for wins), league-leading 2.32 ERA (195 ERA+), 1.03 WHIP, and 334 strikeouts in 260.0 innings pitched; won the Pitching Triple Crown

As he pushed past age 40, Johnson’s last great season came in 2004 with Arizona, as he went 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA (176 ERA+), a league-low and career-best 0.90 WHIP, and a league-leading 290 strikeouts in 245.2 innings pitched to finish second in the NL Cy Young voting to Clemens once again.

In 2005, Johnson signed with the New York Yankees and had two relatively productive years, going 34-19 overall, but also turning in a career-worst 5.00 ERA in 2006.  He re-joined Arizona in 2007 and 2008, though was no longer the dominant force he was the first time around. Finally, in 2009, Johnson went 8-6 with a 4.88 ERA in his final season with the San Francisco Giants before retiring at age 45.

Over the course of their respective long careers (24 seasons for Clemens and 22 seasons for Johnson), Clemens and Johnson each started over 600 games and logged over 4,000 innings pitched.  In terms of their career numbers, on one hand, Clemens has more career wins (354 to 303, including winning 20 games 6x vs. 3x for Johnson) and shutouts (46 to 37), as well as a lower career ERA (3.12 vs. 3.29) and better ERA+ (143 to 135).  On the other hand, Johnson has more career strikeouts (4,875 to 4,672) and a much higher strikeout rate (10.6 per 9 innings vs. 8.6 per 9 innings) on the strength of 13 200+ strikeout campaigns, including 300+ strikeouts 5x, vs. 12 200+ strikeout seasons for Clemens (with zero 300+ years).  Awards-wise, Clemens has the edge in most categories, from All-Star selections (11x to 10x), Cy Youngs (7x to 5x), Pitching Triple Crowns (2x to 1x), and MVPs (1x to none). Finally, from the advanced statistics perspective, Clemens has a significantly higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 139.6 to 101.1.  Taking all of this into account, both pitchers should be surefire Hall of Famers – while Johnson was inducted in 2015, Clemens remains on the outside looking in due to the aforementioned steroid allegations and the subsequent fallout.

Regular Season Statistics

Roger Clemens	Player	Randy Johnson
24 (1984-2007)	Seasons	22 (1988-2009)
709	Games Played	618
4,916.2	Innings Pitched	4,135.1
354-184	W-L Record	303-166
3.12	ERA	3.29
143	ERA+	135
1.17	WHIP	1.17
4,672	Strikeouts	4,875
46	Shutouts	37
139.6	Wins Above Replacement	101.1
11x	All-Star Games	10x
1x	MVP	–
7x	Cy Young	5x
2x	World Series Titles	1x
2x Triple Crown, 7x ERA	Other Awards	1x Triple Crown, 4x ERA
–	Hall of Fame Induction	2015

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

In large part due to his time with the Yankees, Clemens appeared in the postseason much more frequently than Johnson (almost 2x the games and innings pitched), coming away with two World Series titles to Johnson’s one.

During his 24-year career, Clemens made six World Series appearances and turned in his share of memorable performances.  During his masterful 1986 season, he pitched well in two World Series starts, but the Red Sox lost to the New York Mets in seven games in a series best remembered for Bill Buckner’s infamous error through the legs.  As a member of the rival Yankees, Clemens made five straight postseasons from 1999 to 2003, including back-to-back World Series titles in 1999 and 2000.  Against the Chipper Jones-led Atlanta Braves in 1999, Clemens pitched 7.2 innings and gave up only 1 run in Game 4 to complete the sweep. After throwing a one-hitter with a record 15 strikeouts in the 2000 ALCS vs. the Seattle Mariners, Clemens was also great in the World Series vs. the New York Mets pitching 8 innings of shutout ball in Game 2 as the Yankees would ultimately prevail 4-1 in the Subway Series; however, his enduring moment might be throwing a splintered bat back at Mets catcher Mike Piazza.  Following that triumph, Clemens would make three more World Series appearances, though they all resulted in defeat: a seven-game loss to the Diamondbacks in 2001 (more on that shortly) and a six-game defeat to the Florida Marlins in 2003 with the Yankees, and a sweep by the Chicago White Sox in 2005 as a member of the Astros.

Meanwhile, while Johnson had fewer postseason appearances, he had arguably the greater postseason moments.  In his lone season with the Astros, he gave up only 3 runs in two starts across 14.0 innings pitched, but got no run support as Houston was bounced by the San Diego Padres in the NLDS.  2001 was Johnson’s moment to shine – after losing his one start in the NLDS, he went 2-0 in the NLCS vs. the Atlanta Braves and gave up only 2 runs in 16.0 innings pitched with 19 strikeouts.  Then, in the aforementioned World Series vs. the New York Yankees, Johnson pitched a complete game shutout in Game 2 with 11 strikeouts (a 4-0 Diamondbacks victory) and also dominated in a 15-2 Game 6 Arizona win, both against Andy Pettite.  Finally, with Arizona down 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning in the deciding Game 7, Johnson came in as a reliever and got the final four outs, and the Diamondbacks would come back in the bottom of the ninth inning to win the World Series in walk-off fashion vs. legendary Yankees closer Mariano Rivera.  For his stellar play, Johnson was named co-World Series MVP with fellow pitcher Curt Schilling, and the two men also shared the Babe Ruth Award for best postseason performance and were named Sports Illustrated’s 2001 Sportsmen of the Year.

Playoff Statistics

Roger Clemens	Player	Randy Johnson
35	Games Played	19
199.0	Innings Pitched	121.0
12-8	W-L Record	7-9
3.75	ERA	3.50
1.22	WHIP	1.14
173	Strikeouts	132
1	Shutouts	2

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; though Clemens and Johnson were both dominant pitchers even in their late 30s and early 40s, each nevertheless had their own bouts of ineffectiveness and would eventually be slowed by Father Time.  For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.” The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years.

Decade of Dominance

Roger Clemens	Player	Randy Johnson
1986-1987, 1990-1992, 1997-1998, 2001, 2004-2005	Decade of Dominance	1993-1995, 1997-2002, 2004
332	Games Played	327
2,426.2	Innings Pitched	2,374.2
193-68	W-L Record	186-72
2.55	ERA	2.69
1.09	WHIP	1.06
2,331	Strikeouts	3,133
27	Shutouts	31
84.4	Wins Above Replacement	80.8

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

In looking at their respective decades of dominance, the career differentials between Clemens and Johnson narrow significantly across a similar number of starts and innings pitched.  Though Clemens still has a small edge in wins, ERA, and WAR, Johnson retains the better strikeout numbers and has a non-trivial lead in WHIP, while also gaining the upper hand in shutouts.

My Thoughts

In my mind, four pitchers define the 1990s and early 2000s – Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson, who have 16 Cy Young awards between them.  Of this fearsome foursome, Clemens and Johnson are the most similar in terms of having both the power pitching style and long career (Martinez was also a power pitcher, but did not pitch as long; Maddux had a similarly long career, but was more of a location master).  When it comes down to picking between Clemens or Johnson, I think you have to look at both the arc of each pitcher’s career and their apex. Johnson followed a more natural career progression, where he was able to overcome his early control issues and gradually evolved into a force later in his career – during his four-year peak with the Diamondbacks, Johnson was second to none and arguably one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history (while Clemens had similarly strong individual seasons, he does not have the same stretch of sheer brilliance).  Meanwhile, Clemens’ career follows a more volatile and unnatural trajectory – brilliance with the Red Sox, decline, bounceback with the Blue Jays, up-and-down with the Yankees, and a return to dominance with the Astros – which we now know (or strongly suspect) can be attributed to steroid use.

Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:

Randy Johnson

As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.

Further Reading

• Roger Clemens Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

• Randy Johnson Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

• The Best Pitchers of All Time | FiveThirtyEight

• A feat rarer than a perfect game: The five times pitchers struck out 20 – The Washington Post

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