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A basketball player comes into the NBA, takes the league by storm, and quickly becomes a superstar, only to be derailed by injuries and never again return to that form – what could have been? This career arc has played out in the Association countless times during the league’s history, with recent notable examples including Penny Hardaway and Brandon Roy – both were versatile, all-around players who quickly rose to All-Star/All-NBA status in their early to mid-20s, but were never the same explosive player after a series of knee injuries. Looking back on these big “what if” players, let us compare the pair and ask:
Who was better – Penny Hardaway or Brandon Roy?
The Beginning
From elite high school basketball players to college standouts, Hardaway and Roy were both high lottery draft picks and did not disappoint early on, making immediate all-around impacts at the NBA level.
Born and raised in Memphis, Tennessee, Hardaway’s given name is Anfernee, but he earned the moniker “Penny” from his grandmother. As a high school senior, he was named Parade National High School Player of the Year and chose to stay local for his college ball at Memphis State University (now known as the University of Memphis). At first, he was academically ineligible and nearly had his career ended prematurely when he was shot in the foot by a stray bullet, but made a full recovery and gradually improved each year – in addition to twice being named Great Midwest Player of the Year, Hardaway was a First Team All-American as a junior and finalist for both the Naismith and Wooden Awards. Following his junior season, he declared early for the 1993 NBA Draft and was originally selected third overall by the Golden State Warriors, but immediately traded with three first-round draft picks to the Orlando Magic for top overall pick Chris Webber. Teaming up with Shaquille O’Neal in Orlando, Hardaway made the All-Rookie Team in 1993-1994 by starting all 82 games and averaging 16.0 points (on 46.6% shooting), 5.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game.
Similarly, as a product of the Pacific Northwest, Roy was one of the best high school basketball players in the state of Washington and contemplated declaring for the NBA Draft straight out of high school before attending in-state University of Washington. During his four years with the Huskies, he improved his game each year and as a senior, was named Pacific-10 Conference (Pac-10) Player of the Year, a First Team All-American, and a finalist for the Wooden, Naismith, Robertson, and Rupp Awards. Subsequently, Roy was drafted sixth overall in the 2006 NBA Draft by the Minnesota Timberwolves, but immediately traded to the Portland Trail Blazers for fellow draft pick Randy Foye – as a rookie, Roy averaged 16.8 points (on 45.6% shooting), 4.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game in 57 games played to earn Rookie of the Year honors.
Career Comparison
Hardaway and Roy were both ascending superstars in their first half-decade or so in the NBA, but then suffered serious knee injuries that either derailed or completely ended their once-promising careers.
In just his second NBA season in 1994-1995, Hardaway earned the first of four straight All-Star selections and made the All-NBA First Team on the strength of 20.9 points (on 51.2% shooting), 4.4 rebounds, and a career-best 7.2 assists per game. He soared to even greater heights the following year, again earning First Team All-NBA honors with a career-high 21.7 points per game on a career-high 51.3% shooting, along with 4.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. With Shaq leaving the Magic to join the Los Angeles Lakers in the offseason, Hardaway would become Orlando’s unquestioned franchise cornerstone; however, he was limited by injuries to 59 games played in 1996-1997, though still averaged 20.5 points (44.7% shooting), 4.5 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game to make the All-NBA Third Team. Then, in 1997-1998, Hardaway suffered a serious left knee injury that caused him to miss most of the season; he was still named an All-Star and actually came back midseason to play in the All-Star Game, though this hasty return may have hampered his long-term recovery. In the immediate aftermath, Hardaway returned to play all 50 games in the lockout-shortened 1998-1999 season, but was not quite his previous explosive self, putting up 15.8 points (on 42.0% shooting), 5.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.
At the turn of the 21st century and after six seasons in Orlando, Hardaway was traded to the Phoenix Suns for a package including Danny Manning, Pat Garrity, and two future first-round draft picks. As a Sun, he teamed up in the backcourt with Hall of Fame point guard Jason Kidd and had a strong first year (16.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting with a career-best 5.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game), but subsequently declined – after playing just four games the next year, he never averaged more than 12.0 points per game in a season and saw his effectiveness diminish. Midway through the 2003-2004 season, Hardaway was traded to the New York Knicks as part of the Stephon Marbury deal (Marbury, Hardaway, and Cezary Trybanski for Howard Eisley, Maciej Lampe, Charlie Ward, Antonio McDyess, and draft picks); in New York, he played 83 games total over two-and-a-half seasons before retiring post the 2005-2006 season. Though Hardaway made a brief comeback in 2007-2008 to reunite with Shaq on the Miami Heat, he ultimately only played 16 games with Florida’s other franchise before calling it a career at age 36.
Roy likewise earned All-Star status in his second season to the tune of 19.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting with career-highs of 4.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. This marked the first of three straight All-Star selections, as he further improved to Second Team All-NBA in 2008-2009 with a career-high 22.6 points (on a career-high 48.0% shooting), 4.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. The following season, Roy was once again an All-NBA player (Third Team) on averages of 21.5 points (47.3% shooting), 4.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game; however, a right knee injury late in the season caused him to miss not just regular season games, but also most of the playoffs.
In 2010-2011, Roy was further limited by knee injuries to 47 games played and despite arthroscopic knee surgery, he was unable to recapture his previous form, scoring a career-low 12.2 points per game on a mediocre 40.0% shooting. Due to a degenerative knee condition in which he was missing cartilage in his knees, Roy retired after the season at just age 26 and as a result, the Trail Blazers used their amnesty clause on him. Subsequently, he underwent a platelet-rich plasma procedure and attempted to make a comeback with the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2012-2013, but only played five games before needing season-ending surgery, thus ending his NBA career for good.
Though Hardaway ultimately played more than double the amount of NBA seasons and games vs. Roy, he was mostly in a reserve role for the second half of his career; as a result of this drag on his numbers, Roy scored at a higher career rate (18.8 vs. 15.2 points per game) with slightly better efficiency, but Hardaway still maintains the edge in both rebounding (4.5 vs. 4.3 rebounds per game) and assists (5.0 vs. 4.7 assists per game). With a similar number of standout seasons, Hardaway also has the slight advantage in All-Star and All-NBA seasons (4x vs. 3x and 3x vs. 2x, respectively), with Roy adding a Rookie of the Year award to his hardware case. Again, in terms of advanced metrics, Hardaway’s Player Efficiency Rating is dragged down by his later years (20.0 vs. 17.4 advantage for Roy), but those extra seasons allowed him to accumulate more career Win-Shares (61.9 to 37.4).
Regular Season Statistics
| Penny Hardaway | Player | Brandon Roy |
| 14 (1993-2006, 2007-2008) | Seasons | 6 (2006-2011, 2012-2013) |
| 704 | Games Played | 326 |
| 15.2 | Points | 18.8 |
| 4.5 | Rebounds | 4.3 |
| 5.0 | Assists | 4.7 |
| 45.8% | Field Goal % | 45.9% |
| 77.4% | Free Throw % | 80.0% |
| 17.4 | PER | 20.0 |
| 61.9 | Win Shares | 37.4 |
| 4x | All-Star Games | 3x |
| 3x | All-NBA | 2x |
| – | MVP | – |
| – | NBA Titles | – |
| – | NBA Finals MVP | – |
| All-Rookie | Other Awards | ROY |
| – | Hall of Fame Induction | – |
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
In their respective primes, Hardaway propelled the Magic to the top of the Eastern Conference, while Roy kept the Trail Blazers competitive in a loaded Western Conference, but could never quite make Portland a championship-level contender.
Though Hardaway made eight total playoff trips across his days with Orlando, Phoenix, and New York, his greatest successes came early on with the Magic. In particular, during the 1994-1995 season, he and Shaq led the team to the NBA Finals vs. Hakeem Olajuwon and the Houston Rockets, defeating the newly un-retired Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls in the process; though they were swept in the Finals, Hardaway had a strong series with 25.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game in a losing effort. After Shaq’s departure, Hardaway had a career-best 31.0 points per game to go with 6.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in the 1996-1997 playoffs, but Orlando was knocked out in the first round; in fact, post the 1995-1996 season, Hardaway only won one playoff series, averaging 20.3 points per game for the Suns in the 1999-2000 postseason.
In Roy’s first playoff appearance with Portland in 2008-2009, the Trail Blazers lost in the first round to Yao Ming and the Rockets despite his best individual efforts: 26.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game over six games. Over the next two seasons, Portland would get bounced in the first round both times – for Roy personally, his persistent knee issues limited his effectiveness greatly, as he averaged fewer than 10 points per game in both postseasons.
Internationally, Hardaway was also part of the gold medal-winning “Dream Team III” during his prime at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta.
Playoff Statistics
| Penny Hardaway | Player | Brandon Roy |
| 64 | Games Played | 15 |
| 20.4 | Points | 16.3 |
| 4.7 | Rebounds | 3.3 |
| 6.2 | Assists | 2.6 |
| 44.8% | Field Goal % | 44.2% |
| 74.6% | Free Throw % | 80.9% |
| 19.8 | PER | 19.2 |
| 7.7 | Win Shares | 0.9 |
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; even though Hardaway continued to play for nearly a decade, neither he nor Roy were truly able to recover from their injuries. For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.” The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years. However, given their shortened primes and the fact that Roy only played parts of six NBA seasons total, I have modified it in this comparison to a “(half)-decade of dominance”.
(Half)-Decade of Dominance
| Penny Hardaway | Player | Brandon Roy |
| 1993-1997, 1998-1999 | (Half)-Decade of Dominance | 2006-2011 |
| 350 | Games Played | 321 |
| 19.2 | Points | 19.0 |
| 4.8 | Rebounds | 4.3 |
| 6.5 | Assists | 4.7 |
| 47.8% | Field Goal % | 46.0% |
| 76.6% | Free Throw % | 80.1% |
| 20.4 | PER | 20.1 |
| 45.3 | Win Shares | 37.5 |
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
Whereas the full career numbers paint a somewhat misleading picture, when you only look at their first five NBA seasons or so (i.e. pre-injury), Hardaway and Roy actually have very similar profiles – both were terrific all-around players, with the slight edge to the former Magic star in terms of playmaking ability and overall effectiveness/team contributions.
My Thoughts
Had it not been for injuries, we likely would talk about the careers of Penny Hardaway and Brandon Roy in a very different light. As a 24-year-old, Hardaway was First Team All-NBA alongside Karl Malone, Scottie Pippen, David Robinson, and John Stockton, all of whom are first-ballot Hall of Famers; in the late-1990s, he was one of the best all-around players in basketball and viewed as one of the potential heirs to Jordan (the Magic are a bit of a cursed franchise – after trading away Hardaway, Orlando would sign another versatile superstar in Grant Hill, only for him to similarly be bitten by the injury bug). Meanwhile, Roy was clearly a player on the rise and had he stayed healthy, would probably be in the conversation with Clyde Drexler (and eventually, Damian Lillard) as one of the greatest players in Portland history. As it stands, while comparable in scoring and rebounding, I think Hardaway was a more advanced playmaker and overall, reached a slightly higher pinnacle of play than Roy before they were befallen by injuries.
Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:
Penny Hardaway
As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.
Further Reading
More Good Stuff
- Watch: Get tickets to see the Orlando Magic, Portland Trail Blazers, or any other NBA team in action
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- Collect: Buy unique sports memorabilia for Penny Hardaway, Brandon Roy, or your favorite NBA player(s) or team(s)
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