H2H 33: Tom Glavine vs. John Smoltz – Who was Better?

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The Atlanta Braves of the 1990s and early 2000s were one of the great baseball dynasties in recent memory, winning 14 consecutive division titles from 1991 to 2005 (though only one World Series title).  These great teams were led by Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox, All-Star and Hall of Fame hitters such as Chipper Jones, Fred McGriff, and David Justice, but perhaps most importantly, a trio of Hall of Fame pitchers in Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.  Among the Big Three, Maddux is generally regarded as the alpha dog and one of the greatest pitchers ever, but Glavine and Smoltz were no slouches either, with both winning 20+ games on numerous occasions and taking home NL Cy Young honors at least once. Between these two star Atlanta pitchers, the question is:

Who was better – Tom Glavine or John Smoltz?

The Beginning

Both Glavine and Smoltz were multi-sport stars in high school, though ultimately chose baseball, and eventually became Braves teammates on the same pitching staff in the late 1980s.

As a standout high school baseball and hockey player in Massachusetts, Glavine was selected in both the fourth round of the 1984 NHL Draft by the Los Angeles Kings (fun fact – this was two rounds ahead of future NHL Hall of Famer Brett Hull) and the second round of the 1984 MLB Draft by the Atlanta Braves.  He decided to play baseball and after a couple of seasons in the minor leagues, made his major league debut in late 1987. In his first full year as a starter in 1988, Glavine struggled, going 7-17 with a 4.56 ERA (80 ERA+, which is an advanced statistic that adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for both his ballpark and the league-wide ERA; 100 is average), a 1.35 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 195.1 innings pitched, and earning the dubious distinction of leading the league in losses.

Similarly, Smoltz was also a two-sport high school star in Michigan (baseball and football), and was drafted in the 22nd round of the 1985 MLB Draft by the Detroit Tigers.  In 1987, with the Tigers in the midst of a pennant race, they traded Smoltz to the Atlanta Braves for veteran pitcher Doyle Alexander; while the trade benefited Detroit in the short-term, the Braves would be long-term winners.  After making his MLB debut in 1988, Smoltz blossomed in his first season as a full-time starter, going 12-11 in 1989 with a 2.94 ERA (123 ERA+), a 1.12 WHIP, and 168 strikeouts in 208.0 innings pitched, thus earning his first of eight career All-Star selections.

Career Comparison

Throughout the 1990s and well into the 2000s, Glavine and Smoltz established themselves as two of the best pitchers in baseball, and would team up with the likes of Maddux (who signed as a free agent from the Chicago Cubs), Steve Avery, Denny Neagle, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, and others to form the backbone of Atlanta’s consistently dominant pitching staffs.

Despite his rough start, Glavine would persevere and break out in 1991, leading the NL in wins with a 20-11 record to go with a 2.55 ERA (153 ERA+), 1.10 WHIP, and a career-high 192 strikeouts in 246.2 innings pitched; this resulted in his first All-Star selection, as well as his first career Cy Young Award, plus a Silver Slugger for his relative hitting prowess as a pitcher.  That marked the first of three straight seasons as an All-Star and leading the NL with 20+ wins:

  • 1992: 20-8 record with a 2.76 ERA (134 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts in 225.0 innings pitched, finishing second in the Cy Young voting to future Braves teammate Greg Maddux
  • 1993: 22-6 record (a career-high in wins) with a 3.20 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.36 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts in 239.1 innings pitched, finishing third in the Cy Young voting

After another third place Cy Young finish in 1995 despite not being named an All-Star (16-7 record with a 3.08 ERA (137 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts in 198.2 innings pitched), Glavine would embark on another three-year stretch between 1996 to 1998 of being an All-Star each season.  This culminated in a second career Cy Young Award – in 1998, he would lead the league in wins again with a 20-6 record, 2.47 ERA (career-best 168 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, and 157 strikeouts in 229.1 innings pitched. With his fifth 20-win season in 2000, Glavine nearly won a third Cy Young in 2000 (league-leading 21-9 record with a 3.40 ERA (135 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 241.0 innings pitched), but finished second to Randy Johnson as the latter was in the midst of an all-time great four-season stretch.

Following yet another All-Star season in 2002 and 16 seasons overall with Atlanta, Glavine shocked many by joining the NL East rival New York Mets as a free agent.  However, in five seasons with the Mets, Glavine was a largely average pitcher, with his best season coming as an All-Star in 2006 (15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA (114 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts in 198.0 innings pitched), though he did reach the 300-win milestone in a Mets uniform.  Finally, in 2008, he would rejoin Atlanta and make 13 final starts before retiring at age 42.

At the same time, and on the same pitching staff, Smoltz regressed somewhat in 1990 and 1991 after his 1989 All-Star season, but returned to his All-Star form in 1992 and 1993 with back-to-back 15+ win, 200+ strikeout seasons.  Following two more so-so seasons in 1994 and 1995, which included his only losing season as a starter in the strike-shortened 1994 season (6-10), he hit his peak as a starter in 1996 – that year, Smoltz led the league in wins with a career-best 24-8 record to go with a 2.94 ERA (149 ERA+), a 1.00 WHIP, and a league-high 276 strikeouts in 253.2 innings pitched, and as a result, won the NL Cy Young Award along with being an All-Star once again and finishing 11th in the MVP race.  Though he was not as good the following season, Smoltz did win his only Silver Slugger in 1997; the next season, he compiled a 17-3 record (career-best winning percentage), a 2.90 ERA (144 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, and 173 strikeouts in 167.2 innings pitched, which was good for a fourth-place Cy Young finish (tied with Maddux) in a year where the award was won by Glavine. However, arm injuries began to plague him, which eventually resulted in Smoltz getting Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2003 season.

As a 34-year old pitcher coming off major arm surgery, Smoltz had a career renaissance and like fellow Hall of Fame pitcher Dennis Eckersley, made the transition from starter to closer, recording 10 saves in his first season back.  He took over the full-time reins as Braves closer in 2002 and led baseball with 55 saves on a 3.25 ERA (128 ERA+), 1.03 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts in 80.1 innings pitched, in the process winning the NL Rolaids Relief Man Award and finishing third for the Cy Young and eighth for MVP.  Smoltz was arguably even better in 2003, accumulating 45 saves on a miniscule 1.12 ERA (an incredible 385 ERA+), a 0.87 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts in 64.1 innings pitched.  Following another 40+ save campaign in 2004 (44 saves), he moved back to the Braves’ starting rotation and over the next three seasons, compiled a 44-24 record from 2005-2007, including two All-Star selections and two top-10 Cy Young finishes.  In his last full season as a starter in 2007, Smoltz went 14-8 with a 3.11 ERA (140 ERA+), a 1.18 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts in 205.2 innings pitched, good for sixth in the Cy Young voting. After an injury-plagued final season in Atlanta in 2008, he would bounce between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals at age 42 in 2009 before at last retiring at season’s end.

Both Glavine and Smoltz pitched 20+ seasons in the majors, with essentially overlapping careers (1987-2008 for Glavine and 1988-2009 for Smoltz).  By virtue of his greater health and also Smoltz’s time as a closer, Glavine has a nearly 1,000 inning edge in innings pitched and was able to reach the magical 300-win milestone, bolstered by five 20-win seasons and 10 15-win seasons (vs. one 20-win season and six 15-win seasons for Smoltz).  However, despite almost 100 fewer career wins, Smoltz has the benefit of 154 career saves and showed his overpowering stuff with more than 3,000 career strikeouts, as well as lower ratios (ERA, ERA+, and WHIP) than Glavine. Overall, Glavine has the edge in both career All-Star selections (10 to 8) and Cy Young Awards (2 to 1), and for what it is worth, was a better hitter (4 Silver Sluggers to 1).  Using the advanced statistic metric of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to compare their unique careers, Glavine again comes out with an edge of 80.7 to 69.0. Along with longtime teammate Maddux, Glavine (2014) and Smoltz (2015) are fittingly all members of the Hall of Fame.

Regular Season Statistics

Tom GlavinePlayerJohn Smoltz
22 (1987-2008)Seasons21 (1988-1999, 2001-2009)
682Games Played723
4,413.1Innings Pitched3,473.0
305-203W-L Record213-155
Saves154
3.54ERA3.33
118ERA+125
1.31WHIP1.18
2,607Strikeouts3,084
25Shutouts16
80.7Wins Above Replacement69.0
10xAll-Star Games8x
MVP
2xCy Young1x
1xWorld Series Titles1x
1x World Series MVP, 4x Silver SluggerOther Awards1x Rolaids Relief, 1x Silver Slugger
2014Hall of Fame Induction2015

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

As longtime members of the Braves, Glavine and Smoltz helped lead the team to 14 straight division titles, five World Series appearances, and ultimately, one World Series title.  On the whole, Glavine was progressively better in later rounds: 4-3 with a 4.61 ERA in nine NLDS appearances, 6-10 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 NLCS appearances, and 4-3 with a 2.16 ERA in five World Series appearances.  In contrast, Smoltz was consistently good in the postseason: 7-0 with 3 saves and a 2.59 ERA in 11 NLDS appearances, 6-2 with 1 save and a 2.83 ERA in nine NLCS appearances, and 2-2 with a 2.47 ERA in five World Series appearances.

In 1991 and 1992, Atlanta made back-to-back World Series appearances, but lost to the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays, respectively; Glavine went 1-1 in both years in the World Series, while Smoltz was also terrific (6 total earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched) and additionally, garnered MVP honors for the 1992 NLCS vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates after going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA.

In the Braves’ lone World Series title in 1995, a six-game triumph over a powerful Cleveland Indians team that included sluggers Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Eddie Murray, Carlos Baerga, and Jim Thome, Glavine went 2-0 in the World Series with a 1.29 ERA (2 earned runs in 14.0 innings pitched) and won the decisive Game 6 by pitching eight scoreless innings in a 1-0 decision to earn World Series MVP; Smoltz was not quite as sharp, lasting only 2.1 innings in his lone start and giving up 4 earned runs for a 15.43 ERA.

The next season, the Braves would return to defend their title against the New York Yankees, but lost in six games despite strong performances from both Glavine and Smoltz (Glavine – 0-1 with only one earned run given up, Smoltz 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA on one earned run in 14.0 innings pitched).  In 1999, the two teams would meet once again in the World Series, but the Yankees would again prevail in a sweep.

Playoff Statistics

Tom GlavinePlayerJohn Smoltz
35Games Played41
218.1Innings Pitched209.0
14-16W-L Record15-4
Saves4
3.30ERA2.67
1.27WHIP1.14
143Strikeouts199
Shutouts1

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; this can be seen in both Glavine’s so-so later years with the Mets and Smoltz’s injury-prone 30s.  For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.” The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years.

Decade of Dominance

Tom GlavinePlayerJohn Smoltz
1991-1993, 1995-1998, 2000-2002Decade of Dominance1996-1999, 2002-2007
340Games Played435
2,299.1Innings Pitched1,757.1
182-82W-L Record114-60
Saves144
2.99ERA3.02
1.24WHIP1.11
1,453Strikeouts1,666
18Shutouts9
50.4Wins Above Replacement42.0

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Across their decades of dominance, Glavine was the better starting pitcher (more wins, lower ERA, more shutouts, higher WAR), while Smoltz’s peak is bolstered by his incredible three-year stretch of closing; interestingly, despite their overlapping careers, Glavine’s best years were essentially the 1990s and very early 2000s, while Smoltz blossomed later and continued his peak into the mid-2000s.

My Thoughts

In retrospect, the Braves’ Big Three of the 19990s and early 2000s is one of the greatest collections of starting pitching in baseball history.  Among the trio, I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who would not consider Maddux the best of the bunch, but it does get a little trickier between Glavine and Smoltz.  Overall, I think the best way to differentiate between them is that Glavine was the more consistent pitcher, but Smoltz was the more dominant pitcher, particularly in the postseason. Due to his better health, Glavine was the sure bet to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings with 15-20 wins, whereas Smoltz was likely to miss time, but when he did pitch, he was overpowering either as a starter or as a closer.  Moreover, it is pretty amazing that Smoltz was not only able to make the seamless transition from front-line starter to elite closer, but then, to transition once again to becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter – there is perhaps no other pitcher in history with such a unique career arc (other than maybe Babe Ruth, who went from being a great pitcher to one of the greatest sluggers ever).

Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:

John Smoltz

As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.

Who was better - Tom Glavine or John Smoltz?
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