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User UCinternational (Crop), Roy Oswalt 2008 (2), CC BY 2.0
UCinternational (Crop), Jake delivers, CC BY 2.0
The NL saw a plethora of elite starting pitchers during the 2000s – in addition to the overpowering dominance of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in the early 2000s to Tim Lincecum’s back-to-back Cy Youngs at the end of the decade, other star pitchers included the likes of Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, etc. Notably, two young aces that came up at the beginning of the decade were Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy – with nearly parallel careers, the duo were consistently among the top pitchers in the league year in and year out throughout the decade, thus bringing about an interesting comparison:
Who was better – Roy Oswalt or Jake Peavy?
The Beginning
Both products of the South, Oswalt and Peavy were each mid to late-round MLB draft picks who slowly climbed the minor league ranks before making their major league debuts in the early 2000s.
Growing up in small-town Mississippi, Oswalt excelled at both baseball (pitcher) and football (quarterback) in high school, though was not highly recruited due to his size and the size of his hometown. Upon graduating from high school, he pitched at Holmes Community College in Mississippi before being selected in the 23rd round of the 1996 MLB Draft by the Houston Astros. Slowly working his way up the Astros’ minor league system, Oswalt got the big league call-up in 2001 and went on to have a standout rookie year: with a 14-3 record, career-best 2.73 ERA (170 ERA+, which is an advanced statistic that adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for both his ballpark and the league-wide ERA; 100 is average), 1.06 WHIP, and 144 strikeouts in 141.2 innings pitched, he finished second for NL Rookie of the Year (behind Albert Pujols) and fifth for NL Cy Young.
Peavy likewise was born and bred in neighboring Alabama (Mobile, to be exact) and after being named the top high school player in the state, was drafted in the 15th round of the 1999 MLB Draft by the San Diego Padres. Though he had a baseball scholarship offer to attend Auburn, he opted to sign with the Padres; after ascending through the farm system, Peavy was called up to the major leagues midway through the 2002 season and had an up-and-down rookie year, going 6-7 with a 4.52 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts in 97.2 innings pitched.
Career Comparison
Starting around the mid-2000s, Oswalt and Peavy were perennial All-Star and Cy Young candidates as the staff aces of the teams that drafted them (the Astros and Padres, respectively), though each would eventually get traded and finish their careers elsewhere.
Beginning with his standout rookie season, Oswalt would become one of the league’s most consistently excellent pitchers for nearly a decade with the Astros. As an encore, he improved to 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA (144 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP, and 208 strikeouts in 233.0 innings pitched in 2002 to finish fourth for the Cy Young. Though he was plagued by injuries in 2003 and limited to only 21 starts, he still went 10-5 with stellar ratios and perhaps most notably, started a six-pitcher no-hitter against the New York Yankees. Returning to full health, Oswalt went on to post consecutive 20-win seasons:
- 2004: league-best 20-10 record with a 3.49 ERA (124 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, and 206 strikeouts in 237.0 innings pitched; third for Cy Young
- 2005: 20-12 record with a 2.94 ERA (144 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts in a career-high 241.2 innings pitched; earned the first of three straight All-Star selections and was fourth for the Cy Young
Though he never reached the heights of 20 wins again, Oswalt remained an elite pitcher into his late 20s and early 30s – in 2006, he led the league with a 2.98 ERA (150 ERA+), going 15-8 with a 1.17 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 220.2 innings pitched. This was followed by a final All-Star nod in 2007: 17-10 with a 3.54 ERA (140 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, and 154 strikeouts in 212.0 innings pitched. After another outstanding season in 2008 (17-10 record), he struggled to just an 8-6 record in 2009 while seeing his ERA balloon to 4.12, the first time in his career sporting a 4+ mark. Midway through the 2010 season, Oswalt was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for J.A. Happ and a couple of minor leaguers as the Phillies geared up for a title run and went 7-1 with his new team after starting off just 6-12; across Houston and Philadelphia, he was 13-13 with a 2.76 ERA (145 ERA+), a league-best 1.03 WHIP, and 193 strikeouts in 211.2 innings pitched to finish sixth for the NL Cy Young, his highest showing since 2006. However, after struggling through a 9-10 season in 2011, he became a free agent and signed with the Texas Rangers, though he would last just one year with the team; following a final season with the Colorado Rockies in 2013, Oswalt signed a one-day deal to officially retire as an Astro at age 35.
Meanwhile, after another middling season in 2003 (12-11 with a 4.11 ERA), Peavy made the proverbial leap in 2004 and led the league with a 2.27 ERA (171 ERA+; the youngest to win an ERA title since Dwight Gooden in 1985), going 15-6 and striking out 173 hitters in 166.1 innings pitched with a 1.20 WHIP. As a follow-up, he earned the first of three All-Star selections in 2005 with a 13-7 record, 2.88 ERA (134 ERA+), 1.04 WHIP, and a league-high 216 strikeouts in 203.0 innings pitched. Though he struck out 215 batters the following year (including a franchise-record 16 strikeouts in one game), Peavy struggled to only an 11-14 record with a 4.09 ERA as he battled with injuries and mechanical issues. Nevertheless, he quickly rebounded in 2007 and had a career-year: with a league-best 19-6 record with a 2.54 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.06 WHIP, and league-high 240 strikeouts in a career-best 223.1 innings pitched, he was not only an All-Star once again, but won the NL Cy Young (unanimously), finished seventh for NL MVP, and won the Pitching Triple Crown (wins, ERA, and strikeouts). As an encore, however, he was limited by injuries to 27 starts in 2008 and only went 10-11, though with excellent peripherals (2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP). With the Padres in rebuilding mode and Peavy their greatest trade chip, he was dealt midway through the 2009 season to the Chicago White Sox for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter.
Overall, Peavy struggled somewhat during his time with the White Sox and was essentially a .500 pitcher with an ERA above 4; his best season came in 2012, when he went 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.10 WHP, and 194 strikeouts in 219.0 innings pitched to earn a final All-Star nod and win his only Gold Glove. A year later, he was part of a three-team trade that sent him to the Boston Red Sox as they geared up for a title run – though he pitched well down the stretch, Peavy was off to a putrid start in 2014 (1-9 record with a 4.72 ERA) when he was dealt to the San Francisco Giants for two prospects; having worn #44 his whole career, he had to change his number to #43 since the Giants had retired #44 for Willie McCovey. Back in the NL, Peavy recaptured some of his former magic: despite a 7-13 record overall, he was 6-4 with the Giants while posting a stellar 2.17 ERA in a dozen starts. Over the next two seasons, Peavy was again a roughy .500 pitcher and would make his last MLB start in 2016 at 35, though he did not officially retire until 2019.
With two extra years of MLB service, Peavy pitched slightly more career games and innings than Oswalt, but was slightly less effective as a pitcher – overall, the latter won more and lost fewer games with a better ERA, though the former was more of a strikeout pitcher and achieved a marginally lower career WHIP. At the same time, this is reflected in Oswalt having more 15 and 20-win seasons (5 vs. 2 and 2 vs. 0, respectively), but Peavy racking up 200+ strikeouts 3x vs. 2x for his counterpart. Both pitchers were 3x All-Stars, though at his peak, Peavy won the Cy Young and Pitching Triple Crown in the same season, as well as more ERA titles (2 to 1) and a Gold Glove; conversely, in the advanced metrics department, Oswalt accumulated higher career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 50.0 vs. 39.2. However, in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility, Oswalt received only four total votes (0.9%), well below the 5% threshold required to stay on the ballot for another year; given that precedent, it seems highly unlikely that Peavy will merit serious Cooperstown consideration either.
Regular Season Statistics
| Roy Oswalt | Player | Jake Peavy |
| 13 (2001-2013) | Seasons | 15 (2002-2016) |
| 365 | Games Played | 388 |
| 2,245.1 | Innings Pitched | 2,377.0 |
| 163-102 | W-L Record | 152-126 |
| – | Saves | – |
| 3.36 | ERA | 3.63 |
| 127 | ERA+ | 110 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 1,852 | Strikeouts | 2,207 |
| 8 | Shutouts | 6 |
| 50.0 | Wins Above Replacement | 39.2 |
| 3x | All-Star Games | 3x |
| – | MVP | – |
| – | Cy Young | 1x |
| – | World Series Titles | 2x |
| 1x ERA | Other Awards | 1x Pitching Triple Crown, 2x ERA, 1x Gold Glove |
| – | Hall of Fame Induction | – |
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
Somewhat paradoxically, while Oswalt was the superior postseason pitcher, it was Peavy who was a part of multiple World Series-winning teams.
During his career, Oswalt had multiple playoff appearances with both the Astros and Phillies, with his greatest successes coming in the mid-2000s with Houston. Following an NLCS appearance in 2004, he was named MVP of the 2005 NLCS by going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA (2 ER in 14.0 innings pitched) and 12 strikeouts in a six-game victory over the St. Louis Cardinals; however, the Astros were swept in the World Series by the White Sox as Oswalt gave up 5 earned runs in 6.0 innings pitched in a Game 3 no-decision, which Chicago would eventually win 7-5 in 14 innings. Half a decade later, after being acquired by Philadelphia for their title run, he was excellent in the 2010 NLCS (1-1 with a 1.84 ERA (3 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched) and 14 strikeouts), but the team lost to the Giants in six games.
In contrast, Peavy had limited postseason success early on in his career with San Diego, going 0-2 and getting shelled in back-to-back NLDS losses in 2005 and 2006. Later on, he was part of back-to-back World Series championships with two different teams, but was relatively ineffective as a pitcher:
- 2013: Red Sox beat the Cardinals in six games, though Peavy was 0-1 across three total playoff starts with no quality starts (i.e. at least 6 innings pitched with 3 earned runs allowed or fewer)
- 2014: Giants defeated the Kansas City Royals in seven games; Peavy pitched 5.2 innings of shutout ball in his lone NLDS start, but was average in the NLCS and then lit up in a pair of World Series starts, going 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA (9 earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched)
Playoff Statistics
| Roy Oswalt | Player | Jake Peavy |
| 13 | Games Played | 9 |
| 72.1 | Innings Pitched | 38.1 |
| 5-2 | W-L Record | 1-5 |
| – | Saves | – |
| 3.73 | ERA | 7.98 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.83 |
| 56 | Strikeouts | 21 |
| – | Shutouts | – |
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; after primarily starring with Houston and San Diego, respectively, Oswalt and Peavy remained top-line pitchers with their second teams, but gradually became less effective at their subsequent stops. For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.” The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years.
Decade of Dominance
| Roy Oswalt | Player | Jake Peavy |
| 2001-2010 | Decade of Dominance | 2003-2010, 2012-2013 |
| 316 | Games Played | 270 |
| 2,015.0 | Innings Pitched | 1,735.2 |
| 150-83 | W-L Record | 119-84 |
| – | Saves | – |
| 3.18 | ERA | 3.37 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 1,666 | Strikeouts | 1,684 |
| 8 | Shutouts | 5 |
| 49.1 | Wins Above Replacement | 33.0 |
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
Bolstered by consistently better durability, Oswalt pitched more games/innings with a better win-loss record and lower ERA during their comparable best decades, but Peavy was the better strikeout pitcher and allowed fewer baserunners per inning, which is in-line with their overall career comparison.
My Thoughts
Between Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy, I think the difference boils down to consistent excellent vs. peak greatness. In the case of the former, he was never quite the very best pitcher in the NL, but during his prime was year in and year out a top-flight ace capable of winning 20 games with an ERA around 3, a low ERA, and close to 200 strikeouts. In contrast, the latter was more volatile and inconsistent annually, sometimes having stellar seasons, but often being plagued by injuries; however, when everything was right, Peavy was electric, e.g. see his 2007 Cy Young season where he was just the 20th unique pitcher since the start of the 20th century to win the Pitching Triple Crown. All that being said, on the x-y axis between consistency and greatness, I have to give the edge to Oswalt, as borne out by the comparison between their career numbers. In terms of the Hall of Fame, I think writers had it right – similar to contemporaries like the aforementioned Webb and Lincecum, each pitcher was great for a certain period in the 2000s, but ultimately does not have the sustained body of work to merit enshrinement in Cooperstown.
Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:
Roy Oswalt
As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.
Further Reading
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