H2H 37: Steve Carlton vs. Nolan Ryan – Who was Better?

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In the long and storied history of professional baseball, while power pitchers have been an enduring archetype, very few fireballers have achieved both dominance and longevity.  In fact, there are currently only four pitchers in the 300+ win, 4,000+ strikeout club: Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson. While today’s fans may better remember the more recent Cy Young-winning ways of the right-handed Clemens and the southpaw Johnson, the duo of Carlton and Ryan was the original lefty/righty power pairing – given their careers essentially overlapped and the interesting contrasts between their games (besides righty and lefty, Cy Youngs vs. no-hitters, NL vs. primarily AL, etc.), this inevitably leads to the question:

Who was better – Steve Carlton or Nolan Ryan?

The Beginning

Though both Carlton and Ryan came up to the major leagues in their early 20s, each spent the early part of their careers adjusting to the big leagues and would not truly break out until a number of years later.

Growing up in Florida, Carlton was attending Miami Dade College in 1963 when he was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Though he made his major league debut at age 20 in 1965, he only made 11 starts over his first couple of seasons. It was not until 1967 that Carlton became a fixture in the Cardinals’ rotation; that year, he went 14-9 with a 2.98 ERA (110 ERA+, which adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for both his ballpark and the league-wide ERA to an average of 100), 1.22 WHIP, and 168 strikeouts in 193.0 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, as a youngster in Texas, Ryan was already exhibiting the stuff that would make him a legend later on – in a seven-inning high school game, he once struck out a then-record 21 batters.  Following a prolific high school baseball career, he was drafted 226th overall in the 12th round of the 1965 MLB Draft by the New York Mets, and would quickly make his major league debut at 19 in 1966.  However, Ryan only made one start that season and missed most of the 1967 season due to a combination of injury, illness, and military reserve service. Upon being called up full-time by the Mets in 1968, he proceeded to go 6-9 with a 3.09 ERA (98 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, and 133 strikeouts in 134.0 innings pitched; at the same time, he also showed his characteristic wildness by issuing 75 walks.

Career Comparison

For both pitchers, it would take a change of scenery to bring out the best in them, leading to sustained excellence well into their late 30s and early 40s – while Carlton would spend the majority of his career with the Phillies, Ryan was a bit more nomadic and established roots with a number of different franchises during his lengthy career.

All in all, Carlton spent his first seven major league seasons in St. Louis, with highlights including a 20-win season and three All-Star selections, and lowlights including a 19-loss season; overall, he went 77-62 as a Cardinal with a 3.10 ERA (114 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, and 951 strikeouts in 1,265.1 innings pitched.  However, due to a salary dispute, he was traded ahead of the 1972 season to the Philadelphia Phillies for fellow pitcher Rick Wise.

1972 would be a historic season for Carlton – that year, he went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA (182 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, and 310 strikeouts in 346.1 innings pitched, which included 30 complete games and 8 shutouts; overall, Carlton led the league in games started, innings pitched, complete games, wins, ERA, and strikeouts, winning his first Cy Young Award (unanimously) in the process, a Pitching Triple Crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts), and also finishing fifth in the MVP voting.  Moreover, given Philadelphia only won 59 games total that season, Carlton’s mark of accounting for 46% of his team’s wins is a record that continues to stand today.

However, Carlton was unable to sustain this brilliance and slumped over the next few seasons, including leading the NL with 20 losses in 1973.  After getting back on track in 1976 with his third career 20-win season and a fourth-place finish in the Cy Young voting, Carlton earned his second Cy Young Award in 1977 on the back of a league-best 23-10 record with a 2.64 ERA (153 ERA+), 1.12 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts in 283.0 innings pitched, again finishing fifth for MVP.  As the calendar turned to the 1980s, he would pick up his third and fourth Cy Young Awards in 1980 and 1982, respectively, sandwiched by another third-place finish in 1981:

  • 1980: league-leading 24-9 record with a 2.34 ERA (162 ERA+), 1.10 WHIP, and a league-high 286 strikeouts in 304.0 innings pitched; also finished fifth for MVP
  • 1982: league-leading 23-11 record with a 3.10 ERA (119 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, and a league-best 286 strikeouts in 295.2 inning pitched; overall, he led the league in wins 4x and strikeouts 5x

Carlton’s age 37 season in 1982 would be his last All-Star season – for the remaining six seasons of his career, he would only have a winning record once (13-7 in 1984), though did achieve his 300th career victory vs. his old team the Cardinals in 1983, thus becoming the 16th player in history to reach the milestone.  In 1986, the 41-year old Carlton bounced between three teams – he was released by the Phillies, joined the San Francisco Giants and recorded his 4,000th career strikeout, briefly “retired” and immediately signed with the Chicago White Sox. The next season, he bounced between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins and was largely ineffective; after making four appearances and one start in 1988, he would retire at age 43 with the record for most career strikeouts by a left-handed pitcher (a record that has since been broken by Randy Johnson); unlike Ryan, Carlton never threw a no-hitter, though did have six career one-hitters.

As for Ryan, he spent his first four-plus seasons with the Mets and was generally mediocre, going 29-38 overall with a 3.58 ERA (98 ERA+), 1.40 WHIP, and 493 strikeouts in 510.0 innings pitched.  Ahead of the 1972 season, he was traded with Don Rose, Francisco Estrada, and Leroy Stanton to the California Angels (now the Los Angeles Angels) for Jim Fregosi. In California, Ryan would finally become a full-time starter and had his first All-Star season in 1972, compiling a 19-16 record with a 2.28 ERA (128 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, and a league-best 329 strikeouts in 284.0 innings pitched, though also led the league with 157 free passes issued; overall, this was the first of three straight 300-strikeout seasons (6x overall), the first of 11x leading the league in strikeouts, and unfortunately, also the first of three straight years with the most walks (8x overall).

Ryan’s years with the Angels were arguably some of his most prolific – in 1973, he recorded his first 20-win season, going 21-16 with a 2.87 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, and a career-high and MLB-record 383 strikeouts in 326.0 innings pitched, thus earning his highest career Cy Young finish as runner-up; moreover, he pitched the first two no-hitters of his career on May 15 vs. the Kansas City Royals and on July 15 vs. the Detroit Tigers.  The following year, Ryan finished third for the Cy Young with his only other 20-win season (22-16 with a 2.89 ERA (118 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, and 367 strikeouts in a league-leading 332.2 innings pitched, though also had 202 walks), and also had his third career no-hitter vs. the Twins. Overall, in his eight seasons with the Angels, Ryan was a 5x All-Star, led the league in strikeouts 7x, walks 6x (including a career-high 204 walks in 1977; only he and Bob Feller have walked 200+ batters in a season in the modern era), and threw four no-hitters (the fourth one came in 1975 vs. the Baltimore Orioles).

In 1980, Ryan became the first player to earn $1M+ per season after signing as a free agent with the Houston Astros.  After surpassing the 3,000-strikeout mark in 1980, he had one of his best seasons (albeit shortened) in 1981 by going 11-5 with a career-low 1.69 ERA (195 ERA+), 1.12 WHIP, and 140 strikeouts in 149.0 innings pitched; in addition to finishing fourth for the Cy Young, he also threw his fifth career no-hitter that season vs. his old team, the Angels, thus surpassing Sandy Koufax for most career no-hitters.  Ryan continued to rack up the milestones in Houston, surpassing Walter Johnson’s 55-year record of 3,508 career strikeouts in 1983 (Carlton and then, Gaylord Perry would also soon pass Johnson on the list) and reaching 4,000 career strikeouts in 1985.  In particular, 1987 was a very unique season for Ryan – despite a league-leading 2.76 ERA (142 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, and league-best 270 strikeouts in 211.2 innings pitched, he only went 8-16 due to poor run support, yet still finished fifth for the Cy Young.

At the age of 42, Ryan joined the Texas Rangers in 1988, thus becoming the first player to suit up for all four original expansion teams (the Mets, Angels, Astros, and Rangers).  Even well into his 40s, Ryan seemed to defy age, going 16-10 with a 3.20 ERA (124 ERA+), 1.09 WHIP, and 301 strikeouts in 239.1 innings pitched in his first year as a Ranger to garner his last All-Star and 300-strikeout season, while also surpassing 5,000 career strikeouts.  His 300th career win would come in 1990, as well as a sixth career no-hitter (nine years after his last one) vs. the Oakland Athletics.  Incredibly, in 1991, not only would Ryan pitch a seventh and final no-hitter vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, but would also set a career-best WHIP of 1.01, breaking his personal best of 1.03 from the season prior.  Finally, at the ripe old age of 46 (with probably still the ability to pitch longer), Ryan retired from baseball in 1993.

Overall, Carlton and Ryan are two of the longest tenured players in MLB history (in fact, Ryan is tied with Cap Anson for longest career at 27 seasons), with each pitching in over 700 games and logging over 5,000 career innings pitched.  Interestingly, Carlton and Ryan have relatively similar career numbers in terms of wins (329 for Carlton vs. 324 for Ryan, though Ryan has 48 more losses), ERA and ERA+ (3.22 / 115 and 3.19 / 112, respectively), and WHIP (both 1.25), and shutouts (55 vs. 61, respectively).  While Carlton was the better winner on a per-season basis (12x 15-win and 6x 20-win seasons vs. 8x and 2x, respectively), Ryan was by far the more dominant strikeout pitcher not just in terms of total strikeouts (5,714 vs. 4,136), but also on 200-strikeout and 300-strikeout seasons (15x and 6x vs. 8x and 1x, respectively) and strikeout rate (9.5 per 9 innings vs. 7.1 per 9 innings).  Accolades-wise, Carlton has a big edge, ranging from All-Star selections (10x to 8x) to Cy Youngs (4x to none). Also, looking at advanced metrics, Carlton has the edge in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 90.2 vs. 81.2 despite pitching fewer total innings. Not surprisingly, both players were first ballot Hall of Famers, Carlton in 1994, followed by Ryan in 1999.

Regular Season Statistics

Steve CarltonPlayerNolan Ryan
24 (1965-1988)Seasons27 (1966, 1968-1993)
741Games Played807
5,217.2Innings Pitched5,386.0
329-244W-L Record324-292
3.22ERA3.19
115ERA+112
1.25WHIP1.25
4,136Strikeouts5,714
55Shutouts61
90.2Wins Above Replacement81.2
10xAll-Star Games8x
MVP
4xCy Young
2xWorld Series Titles1x
1x Triple Crown, 1x ERA, 1x Gold GloveOther Awards2x ERA
1994Hall of Fame Induction1999

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Despite their lengthy careers, both Carlton and Ryan were relatively infrequent playoff participants, though each did manage to come away with at least one World Series title.

Between his time with the Cardinals and Phillies, Carlton appeared in the postseason on eight occasions, which included four World Series appearances and two championships.  As a youngster with St. Louis, he started Game 5 of the 1967 World Series and pitched six innings with 0 earned runs allowed (1 unearned), but lost the game; nevertheless, the Cardinals prevailed over the Boston Red Sox in seven games.  The next year, the reigning champion Cardinals would lose to the Tigers in seven games, with Carlton appearing in two games as a reliever and giving up 3 earned runs. Later on in his career, following three consecutive NLCS exits with the Phillies from 1976-1978, Cy Young winner Carlton teamed with Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose to lead Philadelphia to the 1980 World Series in six games over the Royals – Carlton started two games in the World Series and went 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA (4 earned runs with 17 strikeouts in 15.0 innings pitched).  Three years later, in 1983, following a dominant performance by Carlton in the NLCS vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-0 with a 0.66 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 13.2 innings pitched), the Phillies would once again make the World Series, but fall to the Baltimore Orioles in five games.

Similarly, Ryan made the playoffs 5x during his long career, with his greatest team success coming early on.  At age 22, he was part of the Mets team that won the 1969 World Series vs. the Orioles in five games, though he pitched primarily in relief.  Ryan’s best postseason stretch came from 1979-1981, when he made three consecutive playoff appearances between the Angels and Astros, but lost each series, including the 1980 NLCS vs. Carlton and the eventual World Series champion Phillies.

Playoff Statistics

Steve CarltonPlayerNolan Ryan
16Games Played9
99.1Innings Pitched58.2
6-6W-L Record2-2
3.26ERA3.07
1.48WHIP0.90
84Strikeouts63
Shutouts

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Every athlete goes through a natural career lifecycle, from starting off as a rookie to reaching peak years of performance and finally, declining into the inevitable retirement due to a combination of age and/or injury; from Ryan’s erratic early days to Carlton’s nomadic 40s, neither player was immune to this career cycle despite incredible longevity.  For Hall of Fame caliber players across sports, I like to look at a concept I call a “decade of dominance.” The thinking behind this is that for most Hall of Fame type careers, there are roughly 10 great seasons that define an athlete (this idea is embodied in a sense by the NFL’s All-Decade teams), though due to injury or other factors, they might not be 10 consecutive years.

Decade of Dominance

Steve CarltonPlayerNolan Ryan
1968-1969, 1971-1972, 1974, 1976-1977, 1980-1982Decade of Dominance1972-1974, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1987, 1989-1991
353Games Played332
2,704.1Innings Pitched2,415.0
196-95W-L Record155-119
2.75ERA2.80
1.17WHIP1.17
2,238Strikeouts2,749
34Shutouts31
60.7Wins Above Replacement54.1

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Across each player’s decade of dominance (which accounts for less than half a career!), the comparison remains quite close – other than win-loss record (big edge to Carlton) and strikeouts (Ryan with a significant lead), most of their other numbers are quite comparable.  One additional observation – whereas Carlton’s ten best years are bunched in a relatively tight 14-year timeframe, Ryan’s decade of dominance spans nearly 20 years!

My Thoughts

In many ways, the careers of Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan are inexorably linked as two of the premier power pitchers of the 1970s and 1980s.  Despite the many similarities in their final numbers, however, their careers were actually very different. On one hand, Carlton played primarily with one club in the Phillies and his career is marked by his brilliant peaks, as evidenced by his four Cy Young Awards, in particular his historic 1972 season.  On the other hand, while Ryan is baseball’s strikeout king and noted for his record seven no-hitters and his astounding longevity, he was a bit nomadic in his career, never won a Cy Young, has a barely above .500 career record, and was more likely to lead the league in walks issued rather than being the best pitcher in any given year.  Beyond the aura that comes with his pitching well into his 40s and still throwing no-hitters, I think peak Carlton was the better pitcher and moreover, he was able to reach and maintain that zenith in a way that Ryan never quite could.

Thus, after weighing their careers against each other in terms of statistics, achievements, and impact, the winner of this faceoff is:

Steve Carlton

As always, vote for your choice and leave your thoughts and comments below.

Who was better - Steve Carlton or Nolan Ryan?
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